DEMOGRAPHIC POLARIZATION AND INCREASE OF SOCIAL RISKS IN KAZAKHSTAN (THE PRE-COVID-19 PERIOD)

Abstract

The events that took place in January 2022 in Kazakhstan drew attention to the risks and threats to national security. Demographic processes are among the most important factors, but   unlike political events, have a greater latent inertia, longtime prerequisites and long-term consequences. The article observes the correlation between the change in the ethnic structure of Kazakhstani cities, the dynamics of fertility rate of the urban population and the increase of social risks. For analysis, the authors use a number of methodological tools: Pearson's correlation coefficient, the cluster approach and the case study. The result of the research is the conclusion about the increasing polarization of reproductive scenarios within a unified demographic system and, as a result, a possible aggravation of the internal social-political and social-economic situation, which will have a reciprocating nature in the foreseeable future.